The Sun's Rotation

Finally, this is something I've been wanting to do for a while.  I took a picture of the sun at about the same time each day for five days.  I wanted to track the movement of sunspots to see the rotation of the sun.  It is faint, but if you stare at it long enough you can see them.



First I showed the picture from each day for a second. Then I labeled the sunspots and showed the five days again. I know it is hard to see and some days are hazier than others.  The second day seems to have the clearest image.  I took the pictures in the morning so east is down and the rotation direction is up in the images.  The solar rotation is supposed to be about 25 days (it is actually a bit shorter to a stationary observer, but appears a bit longer as viewed from Earth because we are orbiting the sun in the same direction as it rotates).  With a 25 day rotation the spots should cover a slightly less than 1/6 of the way around (the difference from the first image to the last in 4 days, 4/25=0.16, 1/6=0.167), which corresponds to 60 degrees. From looking at an image of degree lines on a globe,

it looks about right to me.  1492 started just above «-60» and ended just above the «Equator». 

Also, according to spaceweather.com, on May 27, the day the first picture was taken, sunspot 1492 erupted and sent storm of particles toward the mars curiosity rover that is still in space in route to mars.  I blogged about curiosity before because of all the steps that had to work during its unprecedented landing.

Kite flying on memorial day

We went to a beach park on the west shore on memorial day.  It is a very dry side of the island because it is in the mountains' rain shadow.  The trade winds were blowing stiffly so we took the kite.  I tried attaching the camera to the kite again but it just weighs it down too much, even with a good wind.  When the wind gets stronger the kite's flexible frame bends back and it looses lift.  I think it is designed this way on purpose to avoid breaking.  We're going to have to change strategies to get the camera in the air.  By the way, F liked grabbing the camera and running around with it. 

SpaceX Splashdown!

The US has regained the ability to send and return heavy loads from the International Space Station.  The SpaceX dragon capsule scored a perfect splashdown on the return.  (news link)  They are already planning more NASA resupplying missions and are designing a capsule that can land on land, with its own thrusters.  !

Modern Malthusian Economics and Fossil Fuels

This is something I have speculated about since high school; I even wrote a paper on it in college.  How much of the future of our modern world and economy really depends on fossil fuels⸮

Thomas Malthus' famous essays predicted disaster as exponential human population growth overtook linear growth in agricultural production.  His work was very influential and was recognized by Darwin and others in terms of a role of natural selection.  It is ironic that today we say « social Darwinism » to refer to the application of natural selection ideas to economics, when it was really the economics that came first and we should call natural selection something like « biological Malthus-ism ».

Anyway, Malthus' predictions did not come to pass; probably because of the developing industrial revolution powered by the boon of energy made available from fossil fuels.  Economics is vastly interconnected and feeds back on itself in various ways.  More energy, leads to more food production, which leads to larger populations, more interconnectedness, more ideas being developed, communicated and tested, which leads to more inventions to further develop the economy.  The industrial revolution sparked a storm of positive feedback that has generated the modern world.  There have been some sidetracks, like industrial warfare, that were a horrible waste.  However, today the problem is this might also work in reverse.  As oil gets scarcer and more expensive to produce, energy becomes more expensive, food gets more expensive to produce and to transport, goods and raw materials also become more difficult to come by.  Travel gets inhibited.  Possibly less ideas are tested and developed as materials and energy are harder to obtain AND as eduction is less affordable in a global recession, ...   How far can the reverse process go?  It is clear that oil is only going up in price and at least in the short term there will be economic feedback.  When you stop to consider all the detailed parts from diverse sources with exacting production and manufacturing methods that go into making many objects, the feedback effect begins makes things like cell phones and personal computers questionable to support and affordably produce in the future (how can we get integrated circuits when it might be difficult to just buy insulated copper wire⸮) and makes us realize how surprisingly cheap personal technology really is. 

This doesn't have to be all negative.  For one thing it will force people to be less wasteful (personal transportation comes immediately to mind).  Having smaller fuel efficient cars and rail transportation could save a huge amount of energy.  Also getting rid of the ubiquitous air conditioners that are on all the time in public places (one of the first things we noticed when returning to the US), and hot water heaters that are continuously on will help a lot. 

Speaking of transportation costs, this brings up another classic economists, Johnn van Thuenen.  He came up with the idea of Thuenen rings, where various industries would organize themselves at different distances from city centers based on the cost of producing and transporting goods to the cities economic center.  Perhaps rising fuel costs will push the « residential ring » closer to workplaces, so we don't waste so much time and energy commuting. 

Can countries support big projects like space exploration without fossil fuels?  More importantly, can we effectively research future alternative energy sources to replace oil?  Perhaps a strong argument can be made that we should invest as much current resources as possible into alternative energy research to avoid a global economic catastrophe⸮ 

The opposite end of the scale when speculating about future energy/economics/technology is the idea of a technological singularity.  (Perhaps this is the modern technological equivalent to Marquis de Condorcet's "Idea of Progress." The optimism of which inspired Malthus to develop his opposing view "The Principle of Population.")  Carry the positive feedback effect above to its extreme.  Currently innovation is limited by slow human thinking.  Computer programs can compete with each other and evolve, modify themselves and write other programs.  If we could pass a point of complexity where software could write improved versions of itself, to direct and act upon further research directions there might be a tipping point beyond which an accelerated rate of innovation occurs that outruns humans ability to keep up with understanding it.

In a sense many elements of this are already happening.  No single person can ever know every detail of technology in a culture, but it can easily be argued that the percentage of total technology that is understood by the average individual today is a smaller and smaller proportion.  We achieve this by specializing on certain areas, but communicating between fields is getting harder to do as specializations diverge.  Also, the accelerated rate of invention over the past couple centuries is clear, what is the future outcome of this in the next couple decades?  There are also things like computer evolved antennas and evolved circuits that outperform traditional designs and can be very non-intuitive to understand.  How difficult would it really be to combine evolvable software, evolvable hardware and computer controlled electronics/robotics fabrication and natural resource extraction systems into a feedback loop? 

I've set this up as a scale from an economic dark age to a run away synthetic non-human technology in the future.  As always, instead of falling somewhere on a line in between, we will end up with a mix of elements from each scenario (they are not mutually exclusive), but it is hard to predict how and in what manner.  There are several robust counter forces at work ranging from a coming energy crisis to the accelerating pace of technological development...   So I suppose it is easy to pick and argue for where you predict things will end up depending on your own degree of cynicism/optimism.  However, does anyone really think we will somehow stop, equilibrate, and everything will remain essentially as it is now for the foreseeable future⸮  That would be the most surprising outcome.  It is easy to forget how quickly things can change.  Not that long ago most people were illiterate, speaking instantaneously with someone on the other side of the plant, much less human travel to space and the moon, were unthinkable.  Now we have the internet and the cold war is over, what is next, ...

Solar Adjustments

I packaged our solar collector setup in a plastic storage tub under our work table.  This will free up some table top space and get it out of the way.  I drilled holes in the side of the tub for safety, to keep it well ventilated, and to pass wires through when the top is secured.  It is large enough to add a second battery later on to build more charge capacity.  I fastened the charger up on the side and in the picture below (with the lid off) it is showing a green light meaning the battery is fully charged.

I also replaced the DC to AC power inverter.  To put it simply, the last one was a cheap piece of junk.  I tossed it in my junk collection box to use as parts later on.  I replaced it with a Wagen EL2402 200W inverter that works much better.  In the picture below I am using it to run a 26W florescent light, charge our weed eater battery, and charge the ipad via the USB port, all simultaneously and without a penny to the oil/coal powered electric company. 

Sunspots!

These indirect sun viewers are easy to do with the kids but we would like more resolution.  I mentioned earlier that T and I looked for shade 14 welding goggles at the local hardware store but couldn't find any.  I ordered a replacement visor plate online for a few dollars and it just arrived in the mail.  (Do not try this with anything less than shade level 14!)  I held it over my camera with a telephoto lens and took some shots at 1/2000 of a second at F 5.6.  Several had some blur, even at such a short exposure, because I was holding it freehand (both the filter and the camera) without a tripod.  However, I did get this below (taken 11:42 AM local time, May 27). 

The sun is green because of the tint in the welding shade.  Here is a zoom in.

You might be able to see some sunspots in a band down the middle.  It helps me to adjust the brightness on the screen a bit.  I looked them up at http://www.spaceweather.com/. 

Here I've labeled the ones I can make out just to the right of the spots.

And here is the image from space weather for comparison.  The relative orientations are rotated between the images. 

Kung Fu

T has been interested in Kung Fu for quite some time.  He has been interested in a lot of classic movies and special effects in movies.  From there he began learning about Jackie Chan and other actors and how they used martial arts in movies.  He really wanted to start taking classes here in Hawai'i.  He was very nervous about it but also felt like it was something he needed to do.  G has sponsored him to pay for classes and he has been going for a few months now.

I have never seen him so serious before.  He has always been a fun loving goof off, but that has all changed with respect to Kung Fu.  He has been practicing, stretching, planning ahead and getting ready for lessons.  V and I have commented to each other "where did this child come from⸮"  For example, once, when I started to take his uniform to put in the wash he stopped me and asked if it would be dry and ready in time for his next practice(!).  He is even learning the Chinese names for the different moves.  And his coordination has improved dramatically.  He always moved like a loose bunch of limbs fasten to each other with springs and rubber bands.  Now when he does his practice moves it is smooth, fluid and controlled.  I am very impressed.

The picture above was taken at his school with part of his class (credit for the photo goes to the school).  This is the fun "shaka" photo after the more serious official shot.  In the photo he did not have his white sash yet but not long after it was taken he took the test and passed, so now he has moved to the white sash level.  His instructor has done all kinds of things including acting in movies and recently we rented one to see him.  Hawai'i was one of the first places to also start teaching kung fu to non-Chinese students.  They teach the Hung Gar style and the sifu's lineage goes back to Lam Sai-wing and Wong Fei-hung, which traces back further to the kung fu practiced at the legendary Shaolin Monastery.

SpaceX docked with the ISS!

The dragon capsule successfully docked and delivered over a 1,000 pounds of supplies to the space station after two days of testing maneuvers.  (link)  It is being loaded up with over 1,000 lbs for a return trip.  The first big return cargo since the space shuttle.  This breaks Russia's monopoly on supplying the ISS and makes history as a privately run and controlled venture!

"Thirsty" and "Thank You"

This morning F pointed to her water bottle and said "thirsty."  (It is actually more list "uhsti."  She has been saying this occasionally lately.)  I filled it up with water and handed it to her and she said "thank you."  (Really more of an "anku."  She also has been saying this sometimes when we hand her things.  I am not sure where she is getting it from because the older kids often forget.)

She is much more verbal than the other two were at this age.  She also babbled and vocalized with cooing much more as a baby.  

Individually Adjusting Insurance Rates

The basic idea of insurance is to share risk.  Someone in a group will get sick or have an accident, it could happen to anyone, so by buying insurance as a group the cost that would have happened to one or a few people is divided up among all people.

In this hypothetical example, 10 people had an average expense of $4,000 per some time unit (red).  However, all but two were much lower than $4,000 and two, Martha and Sam, had much higher expense (blue).  So this illustrates uncertainty--the driving idea of insurance.  Of course the insurance company has its own expenses so say each person paid a bit higher than average, $5,000 per unit time, to the insurance company to cover these expenses (yellow). So the total expense paid out is $40,000 for all 10 people and the total payment to the insurance company is $50,000.  (Of course this ignores insurance companies refusing to pay for things they said were covered when you bought the insurance.  I have had plenty of experiences with that (refusing to pay the very thing that is in their booklet of covered expenses) but that is a different issue and for the moment lets just pretend the insurance company is honest and does what it says it will do--wouldn't that be nice⸮) 

Now, say the insurance company has information about you.  This could be anything, driving habits, medical, employment, credit rating, neighborhood you live in, ...   The insurance company might then adjust your rates according to your predicted risk.  This is good for the company, most people pay lower rates and the company will attract more of these lower risk people, but a few people pay higher rates based on risk factors.  The company doesn't want to insure these people anyway and it would help the company if they went elsewhere for insurance.  In the example above, the expenses and average is the same (a total expense of $40,000 for 10 people).  The payment to the insurance company is the same (a total of $50,000), but there is a lower standard rate of $3,000 per person because some people pay a higher rate based on individual risks.

This is very good for the insurance company and on the surface it might seem fair to the consumers.  Why should we all pay for a subset of people that choose risky lifestyles, etc.  In fact it could be argued that this will actively encourage people to "clean up their act."  But what if these risk factors are things people have no control over, like prior medical history or family history of a disease, etc.  Also, in John's case above, he paid a higher rate but the company bet wrong; he actually had lower expenses for the period.

Now let's carry this to a ridiculous extreme to make a point. Say the insurance company had perfect predictive power; that they were able to essentially exactly predict the expense associated with each person over a long time period.  What would the individuals expenses look like⸮ 

Above, the totals are exactly the same again, but the insurance payments are adjusted exactly according to each persons expense.  Of course the company has its own internal expenses, so each person pays a bit more than their covered expense.  In other words it would be better for all of these people to not have any insurance at all and just pay their own expenses.  When the insurance company uses more and more information to reduce risk uncertainty, they are undermining the very reason for individuals to have insurance in the first place.  There is no more shared risk and the people are just supporting a parasitic company for no benefit to themselves.

SpaceX made the launch!

I was worried when I heard the launch attempt by SpaceX on Saturday was canceled, but V just told me there was a successful launch this morning.  In a few days we will see if they can dock with the space station.  That will make the first non-governmental ISS docking.  Will private companies eventually be able to finally return us to the moon?

Solar Eclipse

There was a solar eclipse yesterday over the western US.  Hawai'i was in line to catch part of it in the afternoon (about 18%, less than 1/5, of the sun blocked by the moon at its peak).  We prepared for the eclipse with some indirect viewing equipment.  (T and I also ran by two hardware stores early in the morning to look for shade 14 welding goggles, but they didn't have any that dark.)  The sky was clear in the morning but in the afternoon thick clouds rolled in.

What was frustrating was there were no clouds out over the ocean, just over land.  This is pretty typical here.  The air moving to higher elevation over the islands creates clouds which melt away as the air descends again over the ocean.  The ancient Polynesians used this to find islands over the ocean.  Often if the land was not visible just over the horizon the clouds over it would be.  (This also reminds me of how we found lakes on a canoeing trip in Ontario.  If you looked for it, there was a subtly lighter shade of blue in the sky over lakes, because of the reflected light compared to darker spruce forests, so you could tell approximately where to look for the portage (path) to connect to the next lake.) 

While we waited, M sat in the window and drew what she imagined the eclipse might look like.

Then a small break opened up in the clouds and we ran out to get a look. 

Of course you can't stare at the sun, so I used a camera lens to focus an image onto a piece of paper on the ground, in this case held firmly by M's feet.  In the middle of the image above you might be able to see a dent in the side of the sun from the eclipse. 

Here is a closer shot (click to open a larger image in the browser).  The problem with the image is the clouds around the sun are also reflecting a lot of light, so it is hard to make out the shape precisely (look for the bite taken out of the bottom of the sun).  Also I realized we had power lines between us and the sun so we moved to a better spot but the clouds closed back up.

Waiting for the sun...

Finally there was another break in the clouds and we were able to image the sun again with a dent in it. 

For a while it was bright enough to try out our pinhole camera viewer (made out of aluminum foil, a cardboard box, a piece of paper and some tape).  A big advantage of lenses is that for each point in the image light is collected from a large area the size of the lens to make the image.  In general this gives lens focused projections a huge advantage, especially in low light.  A pinhole camera uses light from a small point to make the image, but has the advantage of being simple and always in focus.  (And they can be a lot of fun, I made a pinhole camera out of a shoebox years ago when I worked for a printing press and had access to the dark room.) 

The light falls on a sheet of paper taped to the near side of the box. 

The image is very faint, but near the middle is the dented sun if you can make it out.  It would be better to fasten black felt around the sides of the box to block out interfering light and make it more like a camera obscura.

V's Desk

In our latest low cost home furnishing news, V picked up a large desk and chair for only $20 at a garage sale.  Here is a picture. 

The flowers are from mother's day.  The vase, lamp and bowl were all either free or garage sale cheap. 

F checking out the desk. 

Believe it or not, the stool in the foreground was also free. 

Break-ins and Bikes

Someone went into our van overnight last week.  One of the locks on the doors is sticky and doesn't always shut all the way when I lock it.  It was parked right in front of our house and we were home the whole time.  V noticed when we went out to get into the van in the morning.  The glove compartment and another tray were open.  All that was taken was some change that was in the tray.  We probably wouldn't have noticed if they hadn't left them open.

I haven't had someone break into our van since we lived in Maryland.  That was a strange story, it was probably police that went into my « suspicious » van; (it was parked alone in a lot at work, after midnight (I was working late), full of boxes with my home made radio transmitter sitting on top, while, unknown to me at the time, a possible non-specific security threat in the area was announced on the news).  Nothing was taken but they apparently checked the registration in the glove compartment (it was left open this time too) with the registration opened up and moved on top.  There wouldn't have been any harm done but I was moving our household stuff from New York and some books fell out on the ground when they opened the door.  They left them there and it rained on them. 

Also, one thing I really miss about Germany is having real bike lanes to ride in on bikes.  They go out away from the city all over the country so you really can see the countryside.  They are completely separated from the road and cars stop for the well marked cross overs.  The « bike lanes » here in the US are ridiculous.  If they exist at all they are poorly marked, narrow spaces in the road.  Nobody in their right mind would ride around in traffic in them because they are so dangerous.  The reason I am posting about this now is because I saw a bike get hit by a FedEx truck on the road last week.  The truck was turning right across the bicycles path.  The man peddling it wasn't directly hit and was able to jump off into the clear but the back of the bike was all bent up and ruined.  The driver stopped and said he didn't see him and offered him the cash in his wallet to help pay for the bike.  I asked if he was OK and if he wanted my name as a witness but he said don't worry about it and just walked away.  

There is a feedback effect.  If enough people rode bikes then they would be safer to ride because drivers would be used to looking out for them.  Also we would be able to get more infrastructure, like real bike lanes, in place to use. Biking is very healthy for all of us (not just the exercise but reduced traffic congestion and pollution emissions).  The best thing I can think of in the meantime is to try to promote bike use, by putting in some real (safe) bike lanes for people to use.