Friday, September 28, 2012

Preemptive War with Iran

All the rhetoric in the news lately about Iran worries me.  Here is the latest (link) about Israel demanding countries adopt a "red line" that once crossed will result in war.  Earlier in the year a lot of the discussion was if a preemptive strike against Iran was needed sooner rather than later...

All of this seems like preparing the public to accept a war; much like the rhetoric about invading Iraq by the Bush administration.  Now, with all the cost in lives and to the economy can anyone articulate a clear reason we (the US) did invade Iraq? 

Let's step back a minute and ask ourselves, what has Iran done?  Like many, many countries Iran has a nuclear program.  Iran may or may not be developing a nuclear weapon; we don't know.  Iran has said they are not developing nuclear weapons and it is not a given that if a country has a nuclear program it will use it to develop nuclear weapons.  We do know however that many other countries have developed nuclear weapons and have not used them to attack other countries (except for one, the United States).  Pakistan and India were on the edge of war not that many years ago but choose not to use nuclear weapons against each other.  China and Taiwan, both of which have or had nuclear programs, have not nuked each other.  Thankfully, the US and USSR did not use them against each other during the Cold War.  North Korea has not used nuclear weapons on South Korea, etc.  South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, etc. have began nuclear weapon programs in the past but then discontinued them.  South Africa even built six warheads but later dismantled them.  So it is not a given that a country will develop nuclear weapons, continue to develop them, maintain them, or actually use them, if they have a nuclear program, even if they are at war. 

There is also the flip side of this coin.  It is well known that, in all likelihood, Israel, which is pushing countries to rally against Iran, has nuclear weapons (link).  Part of the rhetoric is that Iran needs to live up to its "responsibilities" in the international community.  Well, for example, Israel has repeatedly refused to sign the international nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT, link), which Iran has signed.  Also, how can we expect countries not to develop their own nuclear deterrents if we threaten them with nuclear weapons?  We threatened Iraq with nuclear bunker busters, and statements have been made, from the US, a nuclear weapon country, that "all options are on the table." 

If we really want to prevent war and proliferation then a noble first step would be for Israel to sign the non-proliferation treaty like Iran, and/or publicly give up it's nuclear weapons (what are they really going to use them for anyway?) and/or for the US to publicly state that it will not use nuclear weapons against Iran. 

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