Even though Hawai'i is right in the hurricane latitudes; they are very rare events here. Below are the tracks of tropical storms and hurricanes in the N. Pacific by NASA from 1985 to 2005; Hawai'i is near the gap in the middle.
The last hurricane here was in 1992 and there have only been three since 1950. The weather has been very warm lately without the heat breaking at night, and the Pacific is very warm with an El Niño developing. At first they were expected to weaken to tropical storms by the time they made it here, but yesterday I heard they were actually increasing in strength are were at 85 mph and 75 mph winds respectively. The first one is expected to make it to the big island on Thursday with the next one arriving possibly on Sunday. We have had water, food, cash, flashlights, lighters, sterno, etc. stocked (I try to always keep some of this stocked in a closet going back to when we lived in NY) and are currently charging up our batteries (for phones, my portable ham radio receiver, etc.) and bringing things inside off the porch (called a lanai here in Hawai'i). We are expecting flooding and the power to go out at least once at some point in the next few days and possibly the cell phone coverage to go down for a while. There has been a run on the grocery stores in the last 48 hours with some shelves wiped bare and them stacking bottled water near the entrance for people to grab as they go in. We have made some backup plans at work for people to come in at various times and check on things and there have been several school closings. The governor has signed orders to use emergency funds.
Search "honolulu" and "hurricanes" on google news to stay posted.
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Update: Yesterday (and the last few days) it was partially cloudy with blue skies. The weather is still not expected to arrive here in Honolulu for quite a while (this evening). However, it is 2 AM on Thursday and it has started drizzling rain outside and light breeze is blowing. The national weather service has put out a public alert announcing maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph at the hurricane.
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Update: And we had an earthquake! It was a mild 4.5 centered near Hilo on the big island. (news link) Small quakes are fairly common here so this is not a surprise. It is 7:20 AM Thursday here and has cleared off to a clear blue sky! There are clouds on the horizon towards the southeast however. There is a steady light breeze which feels good compared to the still heat over the last couple weeks. Right now Iselle is projected to pass just to the south of Honolulu on Friday and is loosing strength but is expected to make landfall today on the big island as a hurricane. Julio is gaining strength, now up to 100 mph winds, and has been upgraded to a category 2 but is still several days out.
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Update: Tursday 7:45. And now there's a third one. Tropical storm Genevieve (link) is forming and might be heading toward the NW Hawaiian islands. NOAA is also now reporting Julio is up to 105 mph sustained winds.
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Update: Thursday 18:00. There has been a breeze going all day. After noon it picked up a bit and blew down some store sidewalk signs and little things like that. It has rained off and on, alternating with bands of blue sky since noon. We topped off the gas in the car and (V, K, and I) dropped by the grocery store to pick up some things for tonight. Some of the shelves were almost bare. Back home we went for our daily walk with the two little kids in the stroller just now and there were two strong stiff winds that we really had to push into. We also noticed bulbuls (a bird here) being very aggressive about chasing insects. All the schools and events are canceled tomorrow so we are planning to wait it out at home. Airlines are canceling flights and stranded travelers are having to reschedule. Iselle is just arriving at the big island now, is projected to pass south of us tomorrow and drop to 60 mph winds then, and Julio is up to a category 3(!) last I checked.
I took the camera with me to the grocery store!
Above, canned beans! Below, canned meat!
This is where the bottled water was (below).
There's talk about places gouging $30 for water.
Sweet mini peppers!
They have black beans!
Above and below, let's look cute as a distraction then see if I can grab the camera!
Above and below, who's worried? There's only a few bags of charcoal left, but I have goldfish crackers!
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Update: Tursday 20:20. Trees are down in Hilo (on the big island) from the high winds. Power is out in parts of Maui. We just had a couple stiff gusts outside over the last half hour but not much going on here in O'ahu yet.
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Update: Tursday 21:00. Curfew in Maui, all cars to be off the road by 9pm (now). Also, an official announcement that all public bus service is canceled tomorrow. We are making last minute preparations making sure everything is secure outside and unplugging a lot of electronics. The little kids sense something is up and are excited. I found this map on weather underground that shows all three storms. We are just under the "81" in the middle and as of now are predicted to thread the needle between two of the storms. The third is veering away to the west. Julio is up to 115 mph sustained winds.
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Update: Friday 3:30 AM. Iselle is a tropical storm now and is predicted to be veering more southward. It is still over the big island, winds of 70 mph. There is mention of it stalling a bit over the big island which may mean more rain and flooding there. (Interesting to think about what a hurricane does at 14,000 feet as it goes over the volcanoes.) A lot of people are reported to be without power on the big island and Maui. Also, there are reports that a geothermal plant accident on the big island has release hydrogen sulfide and some residents may need to evacuate the area. Here it is breezy. I can hear the breeze get stronger then die down back and fourth in almost a regular oscillation. It is not a strong wind here and there is no rain at the moment. I see a couple cars traveling on the H1 in the distance. Julio is still a category 3, sustained winds at 120 mph with gusts to 150 mph. (Currently predicted to die down to a cat 1 at 75 mph as a track north of us Sunday to Monday.)
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Update: Friday 4:35 AM. There's a noticeable uptick in the wind over the last 20 minutes. I suspect it is in the 20-25 mph range based on reports from the weather stations around here. I opened the door to peak outside and there was a noticeable push against the door with wind racing around me. Still not a big deal here at the moment and there is still no rain since the last update.
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Update: Friday 5:00 AM. Some updates from the local news station and radio. Lots of rain and trees down on the big island. Power off, then on, then off again on Maui. 8" rain on the big island near Hilo. Courts closed all over and jury told to remain home and call in next week for instructions. Someone stole the rescue truck on the big island (the only rescue truck). The prices of all commodities are frozen until August 15 by the office of consumer protection; said they will investigate reports of price gouging.. A lot of stores have run out of supplies and can't restock.
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Update: Friday 7:30 AM. Steady 20-25 mph wind from the NE. Gusts 35 to 45 mph on O'ahu according to weather underground. The gusts are rattling the doors a bit inside the apartment. A little rain off and on. Power has been on continuously. There are breaks of blue sky and in one I saw an airplane go up a few minutes ago, around 7:15 AM, headed toward the east which surprised me. I snapped a picture but it is very pixelated.
Last I heard the airports were only kept open for emergency landings. There is news from Maui that a water treatment plant is without power so they are asking people to conserve water. The center of Iselle is moving off the western side of the big island; winds 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph. It looks like lots of rain is still falling on the SE side of the big island however. Lots of roads are closed on Maui and the big island. Lots of government offices are closed. All ports are closed so no shipping is going in or out. They are still looking for the emergency response truck that was stolen on the big island. (I just heard that they were planning to get a plane in the air to look at damage on the big island and Maui.) Julio has been downgraded to a cat 2, winds 105 with gusts 125 mph. Still predicted to track just to the north of us.
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Update: Friday 8:15 AM.Some trees down here on O'ahu now. One is blocking part of the H1 as a road crew is working on it. Just had someone on the news talk about the weather on the big island. He said the volcanic mountain Mauna Loa (almost 14,000 feet) stalled the storm for 5 hours over land and caused it to weaken a lot. Also, that part of the island only had 10 mph winds during the storm because it was sheltered by the mountain. Also, speculated that Iselle stalling in place would affect the track of Julio coming up behind it.
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Update: Friday 8:40 AM. Raining now and still windy. Below is a picture I just took. It is hard to see the wind from a picture but the palm tree leaves are bent away to the right. The haze to diamond head in the background is from the rain. 58 mph gust reported just now in Lanai.
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Update: Friday 9:30 AM. The rain is here.
and a few minutes later the ridge in the background is no longer visible.
The wind actually seems to have died down a bit here with the heavier rain arriving.
Reports of roofs being blown off houses and power lines down from the big island. Also some video coming in on the local news of streams flooding near Hilo. One of them looks like a smaller version of Niagara falls.
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Update: Friday 10:00 AM. Strong winds on Lanai still. Holding 30-40 mph with gusts up to the 40s and 50s mph. One arm is swinging up toward us from the east side of the big island.
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Update: Friday 11:30 AM. Pretty calm at the moment. The power blinked out briefly earlier so we unplugged everything but all is running fine now. A cable van with a cherry picker dropped by and worked on things for a bit. There's a line of dark clouds facing us now to the south.
The rain has let up for the moment and I noticed a dove with ruffled feathers sitting on its nest out in a tree riding out the storm.
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Update: Friday 14:00. Okay, things are pretty calm. Constant breeze but not strong gusts like this morning. The clouds seem to be breaking up. Iselle is about 150 km south of us with winds a constant 50 mph to 65 mph gusts. Most of the heavy rain is too the south and moving off. Looks like we're pretty much in the clear now. The big island seems to have protected us by breaking up the hurricane with giant volcanoes at high altitude...! There are lots of sirens going back and forth in the distance however. Reports that they cannot get helicopters in the air on the big island to assess impact because of conditions. Now I think all eyes are turning toward Julio and the track it is taking---for now to the north.
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Update: Friday 16:00. Well, we survived the hurricane but the supermarket is another story. Everything calmed down and cleared up. We drove (a short distance not on any major highway) to the grocery store to check out the neighborhood and pick up a few things. They are still having trouble restocking and there were gaps in the shelves. Also, I thought $18 for bottled water (okay, $17.95, I'm rounding off) was a bit steep. As a citizen journalist's ongoing reporting of the effects of the tropical storm to the world on this website, I took out my camera to take a couple of unobtrusive pictures. A woman wearing a store uniform came running up out of nowhere saying "I'm sorry" over and over loudly then that I "can't" take any pictures in the store. I asked why and she went into some mishmash about it had to be cleared through the corporate PR office or I wasn't allowed... I walked away and she yelled "thank you" very loudly at me. I'm not sure why she was apologizing or thanking me; it's not like I was going to say "you're welcome". I think people that work in businesses today don't know what the English language terms "I'm sorry" and "thank you" actually mean. I have used a camera in stores here many times and never had a problem until today. Call me crazy but I suspect this has something to do with my 5 AM report "The prices of all commodities are frozen until August 15 by the office of consumer protection; said they will investigate reports of price gouging". I was not going to say anything about the name of the store until they interfered with me but if you want someone to investigate try the [redacted, contact me for more info.] and ask about the $18 bottled water. I daresay it will be recorded in the checkout line cashier receipt records.
When we got back home we loaded the kids in the stroller and went for our walk. We've been able to make it each day since August 1st!
Above, there was very little traffic. Some leaves and sticks were blown down (and herre in the tropics leaves can get very big). If you look closely you can see F's hair being blown off to the side.
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Update: Saturday 3:30 AM. We came out very lucky here in Honolulu with Iselle. Julio is on the horizon. It is currently a category 2 with 100 mph sustained winds and gusts to 120. Julio is still predicted to swing wide to the north but of course we are keeping an eye on it over the next 48 hours. In the map below our location is under the red marker.
Wow, while we were all watching Iselle, Genevieve was a category 5 with 160 mph winds; Genevieve is heading off to the NW however.
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Update: Sunday 8:00 AM. It looks like we're in the clear! It was overcast yesterday but it is clear blue skies here in Honolulu this morning. Julio is down to a category 1 now, loosing strength, and continuing to pass to the North.
If there are no more developments then I'm planning to wrap up this post.
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